Resumo

Human actions in the drainage network of hydrographic basins interfere with the functioning of ecosystems, causing negative impacts on the environment. Among these impacts, mass loads with a high concentration of phosphorus (P) have a significant potential for point and diffuse pollution of freshwater. The objective of this work was to model P spatially in the Paraopeba River basin, namely in the main water course and 67 sub-basins, and temporally in the years of 2019, 2020, and 2021, after the rupture of B1 tailings dam of Vale, SA company in Brumadinho (Minas Gerais Brazil). The distribution of total phosphorus concentrations (Pt) in relation to environmental attributes (terrain slope, soil class, and land use) and stream flow was assessed with the help of SWAT, the well-known Soil and Water Assessment Tool, coupled with box-plot and cluster analyses. The Pt were obtained from 33 sampling points monitored on a weekly basis. Mean values varied from 0.02 to 1.1 mg/L and maximum from 0.2 to 15.9 mg/L across the basin. The modeling results exposed an impact on the quality of Paraopeba River water in a stretch extending 8.8–155.3 km from the B1 dam, related with the rupture. In this sector, if the contribution from the rupture could be isolated from the other sources, the average Pt would be 0.1 mg/L. The highest Pt (15.9 mg/L) was directly proportional to the urban area of a sub-basin intersecting the limits of Betim town and Belo Horizonte Metropolitan Region. In general, urban sprawl as well as forest-agriculture and forest-mining conversions showed a close relationship with increased Pt, as did sub-basins with a predominance of argisols and an accentuated slope (>20%). There were various moments presenting Pt above legal thresholds (e.g., >0.15 mg/L), mainly in the rainy season.